Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The cost of 'hard' Brexit
There is an interesting article on the Sky News website that claims to be based on leaked government documents, which asserts that a "hard Brexit" would see the Treasury lose up to £66bn in tax revenues a year.
The document contains a warning for Cabinet ministers that leaving the single market and switching to World Trade Organisation rules would cause GDP to fall anywhere between 5.4% and 9.5% within 15 years.
The forecast is based on a study which was controversially commissioned by then chancellor George Osborne in the run up to the EU referendum. It says that assuming no contributions to the EU are made, the annual loss would be at least £38bn - with "the smaller size of the economy" to blame.
Liberal Democrats leader, Tim Farron is absolutely right when he describes the forecast as "yet more proof that hard Brexit would be an act of sheer economic vandalism".
And given that a 'hard' Brexit appears to be Theresa May's chosen option, it should certainly give her and her ministers food for thought.
The document contains a warning for Cabinet ministers that leaving the single market and switching to World Trade Organisation rules would cause GDP to fall anywhere between 5.4% and 9.5% within 15 years.
The forecast is based on a study which was controversially commissioned by then chancellor George Osborne in the run up to the EU referendum. It says that assuming no contributions to the EU are made, the annual loss would be at least £38bn - with "the smaller size of the economy" to blame.
Liberal Democrats leader, Tim Farron is absolutely right when he describes the forecast as "yet more proof that hard Brexit would be an act of sheer economic vandalism".
And given that a 'hard' Brexit appears to be Theresa May's chosen option, it should certainly give her and her ministers food for thought.
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The Liberal Democrat leader believes that "that hard Brexit would be an act of sheer economic vandalism". I disagree - Brexit, full stop, is an act of economic, social and political vandalism. Do the Brexiteers have any idea as to what they are doing ?
Do they have a plan ? Are they just making it up as they go along?
1. The £ is in freefall. This means that from now on imported oil, foodstuffs, clothing etc. is going to be much more expensive. In other word inflation is back.
2. Our Welsh farmers are in danger of seeing cheap Antipodean lamb flood our markets. Welsh Farmers beware.
3. Immigration. Oh, those people living here, can now stay, and the programme of naming and shaming companies who employ foreign workers, appears to have been quietly shelved.
4. Oh and best of all - the gateway to the UK from now on will be via the Irish Republic ( see yesterday's Guardian ). I thought they said that they wanted to 'control our borders'. Now it appears to be that the Irish Republic will control our borders.
5. Finally - the £350 million a day Bus. That seems to have been well and truly parked in the garage.
So - What a shambles - and we've still got another two years of this uncertainty to go.
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Do they have a plan ? Are they just making it up as they go along?
1. The £ is in freefall. This means that from now on imported oil, foodstuffs, clothing etc. is going to be much more expensive. In other word inflation is back.
2. Our Welsh farmers are in danger of seeing cheap Antipodean lamb flood our markets. Welsh Farmers beware.
3. Immigration. Oh, those people living here, can now stay, and the programme of naming and shaming companies who employ foreign workers, appears to have been quietly shelved.
4. Oh and best of all - the gateway to the UK from now on will be via the Irish Republic ( see yesterday's Guardian ). I thought they said that they wanted to 'control our borders'. Now it appears to be that the Irish Republic will control our borders.
5. Finally - the £350 million a day Bus. That seems to have been well and truly parked in the garage.
So - What a shambles - and we've still got another two years of this uncertainty to go.
# posted by 
: 6:49 PM
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